This is the first time I’ve ever used a Sio Moore quote to help sum up a situation but Colin Kaepernick‘s fantasy owners and 49ers fans alike must be wondering the same thing. Moore called out Kaepernick on Instagram after the game, perhaps in response to whatever the two were seen jawing about here, after another down game from Kaepernick contributed to another 49ers loss.
And that’s what this weeks result was folks, a 49ers loss as much as a Raiders win. Sure, the Raiders have won two of three and deserve credit for late season signs of life but they lost 10 games in a row prior to their recent ‘hot streak’ and have a 52-0 loss to the St. Louis Rams sandwiched in between victory. San Francisco marched into Oakland with their playoff fate on the line, and they fell short. Significantly.
At this point the question is: post-game trash talk, or frank assessment?
Kaepernick’s numbers suggest the latter, and while they certainly aren’t the only measure of a QBs success (just ask Kaepernick’s predecessor Alex Smith who also lost on Sunday but has generally been credited with helping KC win football games despite underwhelming stats), they do paint a picture of a player holding his team back.
[We talk more 49ers and generally more fantasy football relevance in our Week 14 Review]
The 49ers have lost two games in a row, and four of seven to find themselves on the outside looking in in the NFC playoff picture. Its fitting, perhaps, that a QB Jim Harbaugh inextricably tied his fate to when choosing Kap over Smith may ultimately be his undoing. In those two losses, Kaepernick has posted back-to-back QB ratings of under 55 completing 55% of his passes in both games and throwing one touchdown to four interceptions. During the seven game skid he has topped 250 yards just twice (a max of 263) and hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in any game (a total of six scores) while being intercepted six times and losing three fumbles. The rushing yards which had been Kaepernick’s saving grace in recent seasons – they’re not there.
Number seven signed a lucrative deal before the season, though the team built in a number of walk away points – perhaps wisely so. At this stage, you’d be hard pressed to call him the QB of the future. From a fantasy football perspective, you’d be hard pressed to have me predicting a rebound in 2014. Sure, Kaepernick has the talent to lead both his real and virtual teams to the promised land, we’ve seen both before, but in a season in which he’s been surrounded by weapons (Michael Crabtree has been healthy all year, and the team added veteran receiving help in Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd), Kaepernick simply isn’t getting it done.
His YPA and TD:INT ratio are both career lows, while his fumbles (and overall turnovers) are a career high. Sure, Kaepernick’s completion percentage is up a bit but it hasn’t produced better overall results to be sure. His rushing average is down to 4.7, with a maximum of 64 yards in a game and nothing over 37 since the start of October. It seems that as team’s have figured out how to defend against Kaepernick the rusher, they’ve put Kaepernick the passer in a situation he is unprepared for. Look no further than the 4th quarter of games, where Kaepernick has been asked to help preserve a victory by picking up first downs or to lead his team from behind: he’s produced four picks, his most of any quarter, and has failed to throw a TD all season. He hasn’t been particularly strong in any frame, mind you, and Pro Football Focus’ data tells us he is one of the least accurate passers (factoring in throw aways, drops and the like) in the league – ranked 22nd and behind the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and rookie Blake Bortles.
There is room for development, and his contract and the situation at backup (presently Blaine Gabbert…) dictate that Kaep will have another chance in 2015, but this year’s regression doesn’t suggest it will go any better.
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