At the close of the 2014 NFL Season, we provided a review of each team with an eye toward the 2015 campaign. While still relevant it has become clear through free agency, and the 2015 NFL Draft that rosters are taking a different shape heading into the season.
Much more will change through the summer, into training camp, and finally Week 1 but with the draft now in the rearview we can look at each roster in detail to get a sense of what players will find themselves in better (or worse) fantasy situations heading into the season.
For earlier articles, check out our 2015 Fantasy NFL Team Preview page.
2015 Fantasy Football Preview: San Francisco 49ers
With a new coaching staff, is Kaepernick to Davis a thing again? (Photo: Reuters).
The 49ers identity is set to change, with an internal power struggle leading to the ouster of Jim Harbaugh and the appointment as long time Defensive Coordinator Jim Tomsula as his successor. The 49ers will bring a new approach to the table in 2015, and they’ll be doing so without a couple of fixtures on offense – namely Frank Gore, and Michael Crabtree, who were unsigned and departed in free agency.
San Francisco 49ers 2015 Preview: Draft Results
- Round 4, Pick 117: Blake Bell (TE)
- Round 4, Pick 126: Mike Davis (RB)
- Round 4, Pick 132: DeAndre Smelter (WR)
- Round 6, Pick 190: Ian Silberman (OG)
- Round 7, Pick 244: Trenton Brown (OG)
- Round 7, Pick 254: Rory Anderson (TE)
San Francisco 49ers 2015 Preview: Notable Additions
- WR Torrey Smith
- WR Jerome Simpson
- RB Reggie Bush
- G Erik Pears
San Francisco 49ers 2015 Preview: Notable Subtractions
- RB Frank Gore
- WR Michael Crabtree
- WR Stevie Johnson
- OT Jonathan Martin
- RT Anthony Davis
San Francisco 49ers 2015 Preview: Coaching Changes
Harbaugh is out, and OC Greg Roman along with him. Jim Tomsula takes over as the head man, with Geep Chryst serving as his OC. Chryst has two years as an OC in San Diego, but was promoted internally after the 49ers failed to land a big fish from elsewhere. The team’s QB Coach for the past four years will look to simplify the playbook. Beyond that, we don’t know a whole lot just yet. His offenses in San Diego skewed pass heavy, but given the team’s personnel, we should expect them to continue to lean heavily on the ground game using a zone blocking scheme, and to try to take some shots deep.
San Francisco 49ers 2015 Preview: Fantasy Fallout
The 49ers lost a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball to retirement and other departures, but the changes weren’t limited to that side of the ball. Tackle Anthony Davis abruptly retired at 25, and the ‘9ers also saw a pair of long time contributors head elsewhere as free agents. That leaves this team seeking a new identity under an inexperienced coaching staff.
For some, they bring welcome change. For others, it’s a step backward. Of course, all we’re really worried about is how the offense looks.
In many respects, that is a question of how Colin Kaepernick fares in 2015. An inconsistent pocket passer through the course of his career, it is expected that he’ll be given the freedom to move around in the pocket. With that in mind, he’ll continue to accumulate enough rushing yards (an increasing number over the last three seasons, landing at 639 on a whopping 104 attempts a year ago) to keep his overall fantasy numbers right around the QB1/2 threshold, but, unless he can consistently make throws from the pocket he’s going to post his share of duds as well. He thew for fewer than 205 yards in five straight, and six of seven to close the season last year, passing for more than 250 just twice. Those type of performances won’t pay the weekly fantasy bills, nor will they be much good to the players catching passes from Kaepernick, either.
Given Torrey Smith‘s binge and bust production, the combination may be hard to trust for fantasy purposes this year. A deep threat at receiver that the 49ers have sorely missed in recent years, he’ll be counted on to take the top off the defense, but that might not equate to steady production. Smith has finished as WR19-23 overall in each of his four seasons, so he has that going for consistency, but on a game by game basis it certainly wasn’t pretty in 2015. He posted five or fewer fantasy points five times, and while his scoring came on late, the fact that he had so many quiet games illustrates the challenges in trusting a receiver used in a deep ball capacity as he’s expected to be. Kaepernick completed just 22 of his 69 passes over 20 yards a year ago. Evidently, Kaepernick spent the offseason working on his mechanics, with observable results in terms of his accuracy, but becoming an effective deep passer will require significant progression. Smith’s acquisition, and the offseason chatter, suggest the team has an interest in trying to take more shots down the field this year. His addition to the offense may be a good move overall, but, it doesn’t have the feeling of a great fantasy relationship in the making.
Smith saw nearly a quarter of his targets at the over 20 yard distance in 2014 and should continue to be used exclusively ont he outside, with Anquan Boldin working the middle of the field. Boldin will turn 35 during the 2015 season and has seen his yards per reception decline steadily sine 2011, but serves an important role for the ‘9ers and another 80 reception, 1,000 yard season isn’t out of the question. There isn’t much upside beyond that and a handful of touchdowns, mind you, but Boldin can be had in the 11th round and offers consistent contributions as a WR4.
Smith and Boldin can be penciled in for 100 or so targets apiece, leaving the rest of the work to be divied up among other pass catchers. At the moment, second year receiver Bruce Ellington is projected to be the third man in the pecking order, though free agent acquisition and reclamation project Jerome Simpson could take that honor. The fantasy enthusiast has to hope that it is Quinton Patton, though. A 2013 rookie out of Louisiana Tech, Patton hasn’t had a lot of action in his young career. All told, he’s logged just 206 offensive snaps in his career, netting just six receptions. Still, the team evidently would like to see what he can do, and he’s never been short on promise. He entered the league with the requisite size and acceleration to excel, but hasn’t put it all together as yet. In reality, there likely aren’t enough targets to go around beyond the top two, but Patton is worth keeping an eye on in training camp all the same. 4th round selection DeAndre Smelter may compete with him for a role in 2016 and beyond, but, is unlikely to contribute in 2015 after a December ACL injury.
Further cutting into the value of the WR3 role is the presumed return to relevance of Vernon Davis. Davis enters a contract year after a 2014 pre-season holdout cost him valuable camp time, and perhaps coaching staff favor. His apparent elimination from the gameplan came as a significant shock, given that it followed on the heels of a 52-850-13 line in 2013, Kaepernick’s first full season. Davis has been active in camp, and has passed the eye test. Revisiting the note of veteran ‘9ers ADP, Davis currently comes in the K/DST range of most drafts, at pick 147.6, as TE15, and a case can be made that he has the upside to turn a profit at that stage of the draft. A return to his field-stretching days of yore is feasible (perhaps not to the level of 16.3 YPR in 2013), and that would help the offense as a whole.
Specifically, if defenses give credence to the abilities of Davis and Smith to beat them over the top, it should open up some running lanes. No back faced more eight man boxes than Frank Gore last year:
Most 2014 runs vs. 8+ in the box 1. Frank Gore, 76 2. DeMarco Murray, 58 3. Justin Forsett, 52 @NFLguy07840
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) June 1, 2015
Simply stating that they want to throw deep won’t change that, but, a change in philosophy won’t hurt the running lanes for the ground attack. That ground attack will be led by sophomore back Carlos Hyde, who made some big plays on the way to a fairly pedestrian 4.0 YPC in limited work last year. He’s unlikely to rival Frank Gore‘s 255 carries from a year ago (8th highest in the NFL) with Reggie Bush, and fourth round selection Mike Davis in town, but should certainly see enough work to warrant placement as a top-end RB2. A punishing back, Hyde ranked 8th in the league in yards after contact per attempt last year, and while he’s shed some weight this offseason he’s still going to be a tough tackle, and is the type of back who could excel against worn down defenses late in games. Replacing Gore’s 1.100 yards and eight of nine seasons with more than 1,000 will be a tall order but San Francisco intends to run, and right now it looks like they plan to do so with Hyde.
Bush was brought in for a reason, though. He remains an electric back with the ball in space, and will see a lot of work on passing downs despite Hyde’s reasonably strong efforts as a pass blocking back in his first year. Bush caught 40 balls in 11 games last year, and roughly four catches a game sounds like a good average bet for him. Certainly, in games where the 49ers are trailing he’ll continue to do his trademark PPR damage. He’s unlikely to get a lot of early down carries though, given Hyde’s presence and the combination of Kendall Hunter and rookie Mike Davis behind him.
Hunter is coming off an ACL tear, but has been effective in limited work in his young career. He’ll spend camp battling Davis for a position behind the two lead backs and for the role of likely handcuff to Hyde. That role could become significant, as Hyde carried a bit of an injury-prone label in his college career and we haven’t seen him log serious work at the NFL level. Redraft investors will want to be attentive to camp to ascertain whether Davis is viewed as prepared for the role, or if those duties fall to Hunter. In great likelihood, neither will be fantasy relevant in 2015 but if you’re the rookie drafting and/or handcuffing type, you’ll want to be in the know.
On the note of rookies, TE Blake Bell could help Kaepernick improve in the redzone but is no threat to the 31-year-old Davis this season. 11 of his 19 TDs came from inside the scoring area last year, and reinforcements (like the 6’6″, 245lb Bell) here could help.
And that about sums up the 49ers in 2,000 words. There are a lot of question marks and red flags for fantasy owners to consider, but there may be value to be had as well. Reluctant owners could wait too long on Hyde, who has a fairly high workload floor given the projected rushing volume San Francisco is expected to accrue, while Boldin’s unflashy 70-850 floor is nothing to shake a stick at either. Beyond that, Kaepernick’s rushing stats bring upside and Davis has ‘return on investment’ stats on his resume. Then again, an offense that finished 20th in yards and 25th in points a year ago and lost it’s premiere contributor may continue to underwhelm.
 |
The post San Francisco 49ers 2015 Preview appeared first on Fantasy Sports Locker Room.
